Jordan’s Worst Nightmare is Unfolding: The Silent Transfer is Here
For decades, the idea that Jordan could become the 'alternative homeland' for Palestinians was dismissed in Amman as a far-fetched conspiracy theory. But today, under the shadow of a far-right Israeli government and the devastating war in Gaza, that nightmare is becoming a chilling reality. And this is the part most people miss: it’s not just about military invasion—it’s about a calculated, gradual displacement that could uproot millions.
The Alarm Bells Are Ringing in Amman
The panic in Jordan reached a boiling point on Sunday when the Israeli cabinet approved measures to register vast areas of the occupied West Bank as 'state land' under the Israeli Ministry of Justice. This move, hailed by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich as a 'settlement revolution,' effectively bypasses the military administration that has controlled the territory since 1967, treating it as sovereign Israeli soil. For Jordan, this bureaucratic maneuver is the final nail in the coffin of the status quo. With Israel’s 'Iron Wall' operation crushing refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarem, Jordan’s leaders are no longer asking if a forced transfer is coming, but how to stop it.
'The Transfer is No Longer a Threat—It’s Happening,' warns Mamdouh al-Abbadi, Jordan’s former deputy prime minister. He tells Al Jazeera, 'The alternative homeland is no longer a distant fear—it’s on our doorstep. After the West Bank, the enemy will set its sights on the East Bank, on Jordan.'
The Silent Transfer: A Gradual Exodus
But here’s where it gets controversial: the fear in Amman isn’t just about tanks and troops. It’s about a 'soft transfer'—making life in the West Bank so unbearable that Palestinians are forced to flee, gradually, toward Jordan. Sunday’s decision to hand land registration authority to the Israeli Justice Ministry is seen as a critical step in this process. By erasing the Jordanian and Ottoman land registries that have protected Palestinian property rights for a century, Israel is clearing the legal path for massive settlement expansion. This isn’t just about land—it’s about erasing history and identity.
A Symbolic Shift with Dangerous Implications
Al-Abbadi points to a symbolic but alarming change in Israeli military nomenclature. 'There’s a new brigade in the Israeli army called the Gilead Brigade,' he notes. 'Gilead is a mountainous region near Amman. This signals that Israel’s strategic ambitions stretch from the Nile to the Euphrates.' He argues that the 1994 Wadi Araba Treaty is effectively dead in the eyes of Israel’s current leadership. 'Smotrich’s ideology isn’t just one man’s view—it’s become state doctrine,' he warns. 'If we don’t act now, the strategy will be ‘either us or them.’ There’s no middle ground.'
Jordan’s Military Options: A Second Army of Tribes
As diplomatic options dwindle, attention is turning to Jordan’s military capabilities. The Jordan Valley, a fertile strip separating the West Bank from Jordan, is now the front line of what strategists call an 'existential defense.' Retired Major-General Mamoun Abu Nowar warns that Israel’s actions amount to an 'undeclared war' on the kingdom. If displacement pressure continues, he says, Jordan must be ready to take drastic measures, like declaring the Jordan Valley a closed military zone. 'This could ignite the region,' he cautions.
But here’s the twist: Abu Nowar dismisses the idea that Israel could easily overrun Jordan, citing the kingdom’s unique social fabric. 'The Jordanian interior, with its tribes and clans, is a second army,' he says. 'Every village, every governorate, will be a defensive line. Israel will not succeed in this confrontation.' Yet, he warns of a 'regional earthquake' if red lines are crossed. 'Our army is ready for all scenarios, including military confrontation,' he adds. 'We cannot let this slide.'
The Collapse of the US Guarantee
Adding to Jordan’s anxiety is a deep sense of betrayal by its oldest ally: the United States. For decades, the stability of the Hashemite Kingdom was a cornerstone of US policy. But Oraib al-Rantawi, director of the Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, argues that this 'strategic wager' has collapsed. 'The bet on Washington has faltered, if not failed entirely,' he tells Al Jazeera. He points to a 'paradigm shift' under Trump, where the US moved its regional focus from Amman and Cairo to Gulf capitals, 'dazzled by money and investments.' Even under Biden, and now with Trump’s return, the US has shown a willingness to sacrifice Jordanian interests for Israel.
Jordan’s Precarious Position: Between Two Fires
Al-Rantawi describes Jordan as trapped in a dependency loop. 'Jordan is between two fires: the fire of [US] aid and the fire of the existential Israeli threat,' he says. General Abu Nowar echoes this skepticism, questioning whether Jordan’s status as a key non-NATO ally means anything in practice. 'Will they apply Article 5 of NATO to us?' he asks. 'This undermines American credibility.'
Did Jordan Shoot Its Diplomacy in the Foot?
Facing this isolation, voices in Amman are calling for a radical shift in alliances. Jordan’s cold peace with the Palestinian Authority (PA) and its shunning of Hamas and other resistance factions are now seen as strategic errors. 'Jordan shot its diplomacy in the foot by exclusively aligning with the weakened PA,' al-Rantawi explains. He contrasts this with Qatar, Egypt, and Turkiye, which maintained ties with Hamas and retained leverage. 'Jordan gave up this role voluntarily—or due to miscalculation,' he says. This reluctance, he suggests, stems from internal fears of empowering the Muslim Brotherhood, but the cost has been a loss of regional influence just when Amman needs it most.
Preparing for the Worst: Mobilization and Survival
The elite consensus is clear: the time for 'diplomatic warnings' is over. The language in Amman has shifted to mobilization and survival. In February, Jordan resumed its compulsory military service program, 'Flag Service,' after a 35-year hiatus. Al-Abbadi goes further, calling for universal conscription. 'Everyone in Jordan must be able to bear arms,' he says. He also urges cultural mobilization, like teaching Hebrew to children. 'He who knows the language of a people is safe from their evil,' he adds. And if a 'slow, camouflaged transfer' begins, he warns, 'we must close the bridges immediately and without hesitation.'
The Storm is Here—And Jordan Stands Alone
As Israel’s Justice Ministry rewrites the land deeds of the West Bank, erasing Palestinian ownership in ledgers just as their homes are erased on the ground, Jordan faces its most precarious moment since 1967. The buffer is gone, and the kingdom stands alone in the path of the storm. 'The world gives speeches, everyone condemns… and Israel acts,' al-Abbadi says. 'If we don’t wake up, the strategy will be: ‘Either us or them.’ There’s no third option.'
What do you think? Is Jordan’s fear justified, or is there still room for diplomacy? Can the international community step in, or is this a conflict that will escalate no matter what? Let us know in the comments—this is a conversation that needs to happen.
